PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN TANAH DAN KESESUAIAN TERHADAP RENCANA TATA RUANG WILAYAH DAN LAHAN SAWAH YANG DILINDUNGI DI KAWASAN PERKOTAAN JEMBER DENGAN PEMODELAN SPASIAL CELLULAR AUTOMATA”

HAFIZ YAFI, 20293349 (2024) PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN TANAH DAN KESESUAIAN TERHADAP RENCANA TATA RUANG WILAYAH DAN LAHAN SAWAH YANG DILINDUNGI DI KAWASAN PERKOTAAN JEMBER DENGAN PEMODELAN SPASIAL CELLULAR AUTOMATA”. Diploma thesis, Sekolah Tinggi Pertanahan Nasional.

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Abstract

Land use change must be in the same accordance with the RTRW. The facts on the ground show that land use change has become uncontrolled, especially on agricultural land into non-agricultural land. Jember Urban Area is an area that has the high urban development. The objectives of this study were to know the land use change in Jember Urban Area for the period 2014-2022, to predict the land use in 2034 using cellular automata-artificial neural network (CA-ANN) model, and to know the suitability between the land use prediction in 2034 with Jember Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) 2015-2035 and Protected Paddy Fields (LSD). The method of this study is a quantitative with a spatial approach. Data used in this research is land use from the digitisation of Landsat 8 images from 2014, 2018 and 2022. As well as the driving factors of land use changes including population density, proximity to roads, proximity to trade centres, proximity to educational facilities, and proximity to health facilities. The results showed that the changes in land use of Jember Urban Area for the period 2014-2022, residential has the highest increase in area of 9.01%, agriculture has the highest decrease in area reaching -7.67%. Spatial modelling produced a kappa value of 0.93590 with a percent of correctness of 95.3% which indicates that the model can be used for future land use prediction analysis. The land use that is predicted to have the highest decrease in area during the 2018-2034 period is agricultural use at -8.32% while the largest increase in area during the 2018-2034 period occurs in settlement use which reaches 11.26%. The results of land use conformity in 2034 with the 2015-2035 RTRW show a value of 60.01%, and there is a potential land use unsuitability for the RTRW in 2034 of 33.75%. The suitability of land use in 2034 against LSD shows a value of 73.31%. However, there is a potential for land use unsuitability against the LSD reaching a value of 26.69%. Keywords: Land use change, CA-ANN, Regional Spatial Plan, Protected Rice Fields

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