ANALISIS DAYA DUKUNG LAHAN PERTANIAN KOMODITAS PADI PADA TINGKAT KETERCAPAIAN SWASEMBADA BERAS TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN DI KABUPATEN MADIUN PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Henry Kurniawan, 22314278 (2026) ANALISIS DAYA DUKUNG LAHAN PERTANIAN KOMODITAS PADI PADA TINGKAT KETERCAPAIAN SWASEMBADA BERAS TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN DI KABUPATEN MADIUN PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.

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Abstract

Madiun Regency is a strategic food buffer area in East Java facing serious challenges due to high rates of paddy field conversion driven by national infrastructure development and industrial expansion. This study aims to analyze land-use changes for the 2020-2025 period, evaluate the carrying capacity of agricultural land, map the achievement level of rice self-sufficiency, and project the threshold (limit) of rice self-sufficiency in Madiun Regency. The research method employed is quantitative with a spatial analysis approach using Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS). Land-use change analysis was conducted through Supervised Classification of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The distribution pattern of land conversion was analyzed using the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) method. Calculations for land carrying capacity and rice self-sufficiency were based on the supply-demand ratio. The results indicate that Madiun Regency lost 2,696 hectares (8.5%) of paddy fields within five years (2020-2025). The land conversion pattern is clustered with an ANN value of 0.437, concentrated along industrial corridors and growth centers. Currently, the land carrying capacity status in all 15 sub-districts remains in SURPLUS (DDL > 1), and all sub-districts have achieved rice self-sufficiency (Class I and II). However, through linear modeling, Madiun Regency is projected to reach the self-sufficiency threshold within 7.08 years (estimated in 2032) at a critical paddy field area of 27,640.87 hectares. This demonstrates that despite population depletion, aggressive land conversion remains the primary threat to regional food security. Keywords: Land Carrying Capacity, Land Conversion, Rice Self-sufficiency, Food Security.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan
Divisions: Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan
Depositing User: yosep ka perpus
Date Deposited: 26 Jun 2026 07:24
Last Modified: 26 Jun 2026 07:24
URI: http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/4797

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