NAZHARA ARDHAN, 2314116 (2026) PREDIKSI POTENSI KESESUAIAN TUTUPAN LAHAN TERHADAP RENCANA TATA RUANG WILAYAH TAHUN 2024-2044 DI KABUPATEN CIREBON. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.
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Abstract
Regional development in Cirebon Regency has increased pressure on land cover change, particularly through the expansion of built-up areas and the conversion of agricultural land. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in 2018, 2021, and 2025, predict land cover conditions in 2029, and evaluate their conformity with the spatial pattern of the 2024–2044 Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) of Cirebon Regency. This research used a quantitative spatial approach based on Sentinel-2A satellite imagery. Land cover classification was conducted using the Random Forest algorithm, while the 2029 land cover prediction was modeled using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). The 2025 existing land cover and the 2029 predicted land cover were overlaid with the RTRW spatial pattern map to determine three conformity categories: suitable, supporting, and unsuitable. The results show that land cover change during 2018–2025 was characterized by an increase in built-up land and a decrease in agricultural land. Built-up land increased from 82.852 km² in 2018 to 101.972 km² in 2025, while agricultural land decreased from 753.364 km² to 636.534 km². The 2029 prediction indicates that built-up land may increase to 166.357 km². Model validation produced Kno, Klocation, and KlocationStrata values above 0.89, indicating good spatial agreement. However, the model still has limitations in estimating the area of certain classes, especially open land, which is highly dynamic and temporary. The conformity analysis shows that unsuitable areas increased from 73.50 km² or 6.84% in 2025 to 102.68 km² or 9.54% in 2029. The largest potential incompatibility in 2029 occurs in Food Crop Areas, mainly due to the potential expansion of built-up land. Therefore, the 2029 prediction should be interpreted as an indicative spatial scenario and an early warning instrument to support spatial utilization control in Cirebon Regency. Keywords: land cover conformity, Random Forest, Land Change Modeler, RTRW
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan |
| Divisions: | Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan |
| Depositing User: | yosep ka perpus |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Jul 2026 04:25 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Jul 2026 04:25 |
| URI: | http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/4877 |
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