PREDIKSI PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DAN POLA URBAN SPRAWL TAHUN 2029 BERBASIS SISTEM INFORMASI GEOGRAFIS (SIG) DI KECAMATAN SUMBANG KABUPATEN BANYUMAS

ANGGRITA DWI PRIMADANI, 22314177 (2026) PREDIKSI PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DAN POLA URBAN SPRAWL TAHUN 2029 BERBASIS SISTEM INFORMASI GEOGRAFIS (SIG) DI KECAMATAN SUMBANG KABUPATEN BANYUMAS. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.

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Abstract

Urbanization triggers significant physical expansion from core cities to peri-urban areas, leading to uncontrolled land conversion. This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes from 2021 to 2025, model land use predictions for 2029 using the hybrid Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA- ANN) method, and identify the resulting urban sprawl patterns in Sumbang District, Banyumas Regency. The research employs a descriptive-quantitative method with a spatial analysis approach. High-resolution satellite imagery was processed through on-screen digitizing, and driver variables were filtered using Pearson's Correlation to avoid multicollinearity. The model validation demonstrated high predictive capability with a Percent of Correctness of 98.90% and an Overall Kappa Index of 0.986. The results indicate that during the 2021–2025 period, built-up areas expanded by 41.41 ha, primarily driven by the conversion of open land (41.51%) and mixed gardens/kebun (38.47%). By 2029, built-up areas are projected to expand by an additional 24.03 ha, accompanied by a significant reduction of 43.29 ha in productive paddy fields in the southern zone due to conversions into built-up areas and transitional lands (dry fields and open spaces). Spatial hierarchy analysis confirms that both historical and predictive periods are heavily dominated by the Ribbon Development pattern, accounting for 45.67% in 2021–2025 and rising sharply to 91.76% in 2029. This absolute dominance proves empirically that road infrastructure accessibility is the primary determinant directing the morphology of urban sprawl in the peri-urban fringe of Purwokerto. Keywords: Urban Sprawl, CA-ANN, Land Use Prediction, Ribbon Development, Peri-Urban Fringe.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan
Divisions:	Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan
Depositing User:	yosep ka perpus
Date Deposited:	21 Sep 2026 02:14
Last Modified:	21 Sep 2026 02:14
URI:	http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/5047

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