PROYEKSI PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DI KOTA KEDIRI TAHUN 2034

BIMO SATRIO WICAKSONO, 21303873 (2025) PROYEKSI PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DI KOTA KEDIRI TAHUN 2034. Diploma thesis, Sekolah Tinggi Pertanahan Nasional.

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Abstract

This study aims to project land use and analyze land use change dynamics in Kediri City through 2034. The method involved interpretation of Sentinel-2A satellite imagery from 2020, 2022, and 2024, and land use projection modeling using the MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation) plugin based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm. The validation results yielded an accuracy of 80.66% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.67, indicating a reasonably strong model performance. The 2034 projection shows that land use will be dominated by Residential, Commercial, and Service areas (RRS), covering 3,328.34 hectares, followed by agricultural land at 2,030.78 hectares, and industrial areas at 388.37 hectares. These findings suggest a spatial shift from the primary sector to secondary and tertiary sectors, aligning with Rostow’s economic growth theory—specifically the Take-Off stage toward Drive to Maturity. Furthermore, discrepancies were identified between the projection results and the zoning regulations in Kediri’s Detailed Spatial Plan (RDTR), particularly in agricultural and green open space zones. This study contributes to spatial planning and decision-making processes that are grounded in actual land use dynamics and data-driven modeling. Keywords: Land use, Projection, MOLUSCE

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