PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN KAPANEWON SEYEGAN DENGAN PEMODELAN SPASIAL CELLULAR AUTOMATA ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

SETYA DWI MULYO, 22314170 (2026) PREDIKSI PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN KAPANEWON SEYEGAN DENGAN PEMODELAN SPASIAL CELLULAR AUTOMATA ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.

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Abstract

Land use change is a phenomenon that continuously occurs due to population growth, regional development, and infrastructure expansion. Kapanewon Seyegan, as one of the major agricultural production areas in Sleman Regency, has experienced pressure from land use changes caused by the expansion of settlements, industrial development, and the construction of the Yogyakarta–Bawen Toll Road. This study aims to analyze land use changes in Kapanewon Seyegan during the 2016-2025 period, predict land use in 2034 using the Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model, and evaluate land use suitability based on the West Sleman Detailed Spatial Plan (RDTR) 2021-2041. This research employed a quantitative method with a spatial approach. The data consisted of interpreted Sentinel-2A satellite imagery from 2016 and 2025, which were classified into five land use categories: agricultural land, settlements, industrial areas, open land, and water bodies. Spatial modeling was conducted using the CA-ANN method through the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS to generate a land use prediction map for 2034. Furthermore, a land use suitability analysis was carried out by comparing the existing and predicted land use with the West Sleman RDTR 2021-2041. The results indicate that during the 2016-2025 period, agricultural land decreased by 105.3045 hectares, while settlement areas increased by 53.7704 hectares. The validation results of the CA-ANN model demonstrated excellent performance, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.95960 and an overall accuracy of 98.74077%, indicating that the model is reliable for land use prediction. The 2034 prediction shows that agricultural land is expected to continue declining, whereas settlement areas are projected to increase, reflecting the dominance of built-up area expansion. The land use suitability analysis revealed that in 2025, the area inconsistent with the West Sleman RDTR 2021-2041 was 34.1422 hectares, while the predicted land use in 2034 indicates an increase in unsuitable land use to 97.87079674 hectares. These findings highlight the need for effective spatial planning and land use control policies to maintain the sustainability of agricultural land in Kapanewon Seyegan. Keywords: Land Use Change, Land Use Prediction, Detailed Spatial Plan (RDTR), and Spatial Plan Conformity.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan
Divisions: Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan
Depositing User: yosep ka perpus
Date Deposited: 29 Jun 2026 03:59
Last Modified: 29 Jun 2026 03:59
URI: http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/4832

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