AHMAD FAIZ RUHIYAT, 22314400 (2026) ANALISIS PERUBAHAN DAN PREDIKSI TUTUPAN LAHAN TAHUN 2018–2030 SERTA PERKEMBANGAN KAWASAN TERBANGUN DI KABUPATEN SRAGEN. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.
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Abstract
Land cover change reflects the dynamics of spatial utilization driven by population growth, urbanization, and infrastructure development, which directly affect spatial planning and environmental sustainability, particularly in Sragen Regency as part of the Subosukowonosraten region. Increased accessibility and the expansion of built-up areas have further encouraged the conversion of non-built-up land into built-up land; therefore, a comprehensive spatial study is required. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in 2018, 2022, and 2026, predict land cover in 2030, examine the growth pattern of built-up land, and evaluate its conformity with the Regional Spatial Plan (RTRW) of Sragen Regency for 2011-2031. The research method employed is descriptive quantitative with a spatial approach. Sentinel-2 imagery data were classified using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, while the 2030 prediction was conducted using Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) modeling through the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. The model considered elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to industrial areas, distance to the city center, and population density variables. The pattern of built-up land was analyzed using Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN), while the RTRW conformity evaluation was conducted through spatial overlay analysis. The results show that the Cultivated Land category dominated the land cover of Sragen Regency, although it decreased from 544.717 km2 in 2018 to 526.142 km2 in 2026. Built-up land increased from 102.225 km2 in 2018 to 125.481 km2 in 2022 and 140.986 km2 in 2026, and is predicted to reach 142.06 km2 in 2030. The 2030 prediction indicates that Cultivated Land will remain the dominant category, covering 535.30 km2, followed by Natural Vegetation at 242.04 km2, Built-up Land at 142.06 km2, Open Land at 42.76 km2, and Water Bodies at 29.54 km2. The spatial distribution pattern of built-up land is clustered, with Nearest Neighbor Ratio values of 0.715684 in 2026 and 0.695836 in 2030. In conclusion, Sragen Regency remains dominated by agrarian functions; however, it is experiencing clustered built-up area development pressure that may increase the potential for spatial utilization nonconformity. Therefore, continuous monitoring and control of spatial utilization are necessary. Keywords: Land cover change; Land cover prediction; Built-up land
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan |
| Divisions: | Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan |
| Depositing User: | yosep ka perpus |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Sep 2026 03:10 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Sep 2026 03:10 |
| URI: | http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/5108 |
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