APRELIYA WULAN CAHAYANI, 22314495 (2026) HUBUNGAN PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN TANAH DAN LAJU PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK DENGAN RISIKO BANJIR DI KABUPATEN JEMBER. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.
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Abstract
Population growth in Jember Regency has accelerated regional development and increased the demand for land, resulting in the conversion of land into built-up areas. This transformation reduces the land's capacity to absorb rainwater, increases surface runoff, and consequently exacerbates flood risk. This study aims to (1) analyze the spatial distribution pattern of land use change in Jember Regency between 2015 and 2025; (2) analyze flood risk in 2015 and 2025; (3) examine the relationship between land use change, population growth rate, and flood risk; and (4) identify strategies for controlling land use change. This study employed a mixed-methods approach using a sequential explanatory design. The spatial distribution pattern of land use change was analyzed through an overlay of the 2015 and 2025 land use maps and the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) analysis. Flood risk data for 2015 and 2025 were obtained from the flood risk classification (low, medium, and high) provided by the Regional Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) of Jember Regency. The relationships between land use change, population growth rate, and flood risk were analyzed separately using the Fisher–Freeman–Halton Exact Test. The qualitative phase involved interviews and policy document analysis to identify strategies for controlling land use change. The results indicate that substantial land use conversion into built-up areas, particularly residential areas, occurred in Jember Regency between 2015 and 2025. During this period, water bodies decreased by approximately 67.235 hectares, forests by 20.875 hectares, plantations by 1,705.56 hectares, agricultural land by 2,052.982 hectares, and dry agricultural land by 1,393 hectares, while residential land increased by 5,689.661 hectares. The spatial distribution of land use change exhibited a clustered pattern, particularly in the districts of Kaliwates, Patrang, and Sumbersari, which recorded the highest percentages of land use change and serve as the urban centers of Jember Regency. Flood risk in 2025 was higher than in 2015. Statistical analysis revealed a significant relationship between land use change and flood risk (p = 0,022), as well as between population growth rate and flood risk (p = 0,019). Strategies for controlling land use change include strengthening land use considerations (Pertimbangan Teknis Pertanahan/PTP), improving the supervision and enforcement of the Spatial Utilization Activity Conformity Approval (Persetujuan Kesesuaian Kegiatan Pemanfaatan Ruang/PKKPR), enhancing inter-agency coordination, implementing land use control measures tailored to the characteristics of each area, and integrating flood disaster risk into Spatial Plans (RTR). Keywords: land use change, population growth rate, flood risk, land use control strategy
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan |
| Divisions: | Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan |
| Depositing User: | yosep ka perpus |
| Date Deposited: | 22 Oct 2026 02:35 |
| Last Modified: | 22 Oct 2026 02:35 |
| URI: | http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/5256 |
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