PREDIKSI SPASIAL PERKEMBANGAN LAHAN TERBANGUN DI KECAMATAN MARTAPURA KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU TIMUR PROVINSI SUMATERA SELATAN TAHUN 2031 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL CELULLAR AUTOMATA PADA QGIS

JOGO PRASETIO, 22314372 (2026) PREDIKSI SPASIAL PERKEMBANGAN LAHAN TERBANGUN DI KECAMATAN MARTAPURA KABUPATEN OGAN KOMERING ULU TIMUR PROVINSI SUMATERA SELATAN TAHUN 2031 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL CELULLAR AUTOMATA PADA QGIS. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Agraria STPN.

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Abstract

The development of built-up land is one of the major forms of land cover change driven by population growth, economic activities, and infrastructure development. As the administrative center of Ogan Komering Ulu Timur Regency, Martapura District has experienced increasing land demand, which has the potential to accelerate the conversion of non-built-up land into built-up land. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in 2013, 2019, and 2025, evaluate the accuracy of the 2025 land cover classification using the Confusion Matrix method, and predict the spatial development of built-up land in 2031 using the Cellular Automata model through the MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. This study employed a quantitative approach using multitemporal Landsat satellite imagery classified through the Supervised Classification method. The classification results were validated using Producer’s Accuracy, User’s Accuracy, Overall Accuracy, and the Kappa Coefficient before being used as input data for spatial prediction modeling. The results indicate that built-up land in Martapura District increased gradually throughout the observation period. The Cellular Automata model predicts that the extent of built-up land in 2031 will increase by approximately 387.38 hectares, or 25.79%, compared with its extent in 2025. The predicted expansion is primarily concentrated around existing built-up areas and along major road corridors. This study contributes spatial prediction information that can serve as a supporting reference for spatial planning policies, land conversion control, and sustainable regional development planning. Keywords: built-up land, land cover, Cellular Automata, MOLUSCE, spatial prediction.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD29 Pertanahan
Divisions:	Prodi Diploma IV Pertanahan
Depositing User:	yosep ka perpus
Date Deposited:	29 Oct 2026 08:59
Last Modified:	29 Oct 2026 08:59
URI:	http://repository.stpn.ac.id/id/eprint/5300

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